## MathsNet: Research Student Directory

Name | Aristotelous, Georgios |
---|---|

Group | Statistics and Probability |

Room | B16, Maths |

Telephone | +44 (0) 115 [direct dial] |

Thesis Title | Theoretical and computational aspects of Bayesian inference and Model Assessment for stochastic disease transmission models |

Thesis Abstract | During the last decade there has been a significant progress in the area of parameter estimation for stochastic epidemic models. However, less attention has been given to the issue of model adequacy and assessment, i.e. the question of how well a model fits the data. Due to the fact that epidemic data are only partially observed and not i.i.d makes simple attractive measures of model fit, such as the R^2 for normal linear regression, not easy to define. In addition, to deal with the partial observation, these measures are usually embedded into MCMC algorithms in order to impute the missing data. These algorithms are computationally intensive, especially for large data problems, and methods for improving their efficiency are highly desirable. This project aims to develop new measures of model adequacy for epidemic models and explore ways for improving the efficiency of the MCMC algorithms used to fit the models. |

School contact information | School of Mathematical Sciences University of Nottingham University Park Nottingham, NG7 2RD UK Tel: +44 (0) 115 951 4949 Fax: +44 (0) 115 951 4951 |